Capital and risk-weighted assets

 

Capital ratios have remained at record levels. The total capital ratio reached 20.2% as of YE 2024, which is a YoY increase of 14 bps. This was primarily driven by the Tier 1 and Tier 2 components, which rose in the last year by 10 bps and 6 bps respectively. Tier 1 stood at close to 1.5% and Tier 2 at 2.6% of total RWA. The CET1 ratio, on the other hand, remained broadly stable and close to its record level, at 16.1% in Q4 2024 (Figure 45).

Figure 45: Capital ratios and leverage ratio

Source: EBA supervisory reporting data

Overall, the volume of CET1 capital rose by around EUR 70bn (or 5%) in 2024, from around EUR 1.5 tn in Q4 2023 to around EUR 1.6 tn as of Q4 2024. The increase in CET1 capital was mainly due to rising retained earnings and other reserves, which increased by 6% and 8% respectively (Figure 46).

Figure 46: CET1 capital components

Source: EBA supervisory reporting data

Total RWAs increased by around EUR 460 bn (or 5%) in 2024 to around EUR 10 tn in Q4 2024. By type of risk, credit risk was the main driver, with an increase of EUR 403 bn (5%) in 2024. Operational risk also added EUR 81bn to the RWA total in 2024, representing an increase of 8%. Market risk remained almost unchanged and credit valuation adjustment (CVA) risk declined by 11% in 2024 (Figure 47).

Figure 47: RWA components

Source: EBA supervisory reporting data

Box 2: Achievements of the post-GFC regulatory reform in the banking sector

15 years after the GFC, much progress has been made in reforming the financial rulebook. The broad agenda set by the international regulatory community has given rise to new standards that have contributed to a more resilient financial system – one that is less leveraged, more liquid, better supervised and able to allow an orderly resolution of failing banks with minimal costs for taxpayers and to the real economy. The final implementation of the Basel III framework has led to new requirements that apply to EU/EEA institutions from 1 January 2025. All Member States now have macroprudential authorities and tools with which to oversee and contain risks to the whole financial system. Furthermore, bank supervision has been intensified, especially at large banks, and stress testing has been widely adopted to assess risks for the banking sector. Finally, bank resolution regimes and deposit guarantee schemes have been improved – providing additional safeguards for depositors and taxpayers.

Banks’ capital positions and capital ratios have increased significantly since the GFC. The volume of equity held by EEA banks has almost doubled since 2008 and the ratio of equity to total assets (a proxy of the leverage ratio to overcome changes in regulatory definitions over time) increased by 50% during the same period[41]. Banks are thus better prepared to absorb shocks and to continue operations during periods of financial distress, increasing financial stability overall.

Figure 48: Evolution of equity (lhs) and equity to assets ratio (rhs)

Source: S&P Global

The introduction of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), which aims, together with the Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation (SRMR) and the Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive (DGSD), to create a comprehensive framework for dealing with failing banks without resorting to taxpayer-funded bailouts, has led to a rise in liabilities that can be bailed in if needed. As of June 2024, the average MREL requirement has reached 28.5% of total RWA for G-SII banks and 28.3% of total RWA for top tier and fished banks, both of which are typically subject to bail-in as the preferred resolution strategy[42]. These requirements compare to average MREL-eligible resources of 33.6% of total RWA for G-SII banks and to 37.2% of total RWA for top tier and fished banks. The progress made since the BRRD was introduced in 2015 is also visible in the stock volume of MREL-eligible debt instruments. As of December 2024, EEA banks have in total raised EUR 1,005 bn in senior non-preferred and senior HoldCo debt, in addition to EUR 388 bn of AT1 and Tier 2 instruments.

The DGSD ensures that depositors are protected by national deposit guarantee schemes (DGSs), which guarantee that deposits up to EUR 100 000 will always be repaid even if the bank holding them fails. For that purpose, there is EUR 79 bn available in the EU to guard depositors against bank failures. To achieve that, banks in the EU have been contributing to the build-up of these deposit guarantee funds over the past ten years, with the deadline for the funds to reach the minimum required target level of (usually) 0.8% of covered deposits for the first time in July 2024. The data for the end of 2024 shows that all 33 EU DGSs had reached that target level or held even more funds than legally required[43]. In total, the DGSs protect EUR 8.6tn of covered deposits. In December 2023, the EBA assessed that the minimum target level is still accurate to protect depositors and financial stability. Since 2014, the funds have already been used more than 100 times to protect depositors. If DGSs need more means than directly available in the funds, they have in place additional arrangements to require credit institutions to make additional contributions to the fund and/or to make additional short-term funding available. However, fully built-up DGS funds reduce the likelihood that banks will need to provide ad hoc short-term funding when other banks fail.

High capital buffers and profits enable high payouts

EU/EEA banks’ CET1 headroom above overall capital requirement (OCR) – which consist of Pillar 1, Pillar 2 and the combined buffer requirements (CBR) – and Pillar 2 Guidance (P2G), has remained at comfortable levels. The headroom declined slightly YoY, from nearly 500 bps in Q4 2023 to around 470 bps in Q4 2024. The decline is mainly the result of higher OCR plus P2G. The rise in the OCR was primarily due to an increase in the countercyclical buffer (CCyB) component, which rose by 19 bps in the last year (Figure 49).

Figure 49: CET1 requirements and Pillar 2 Guidance vs CET1 ratio

Source: EBA supervisory reporting data

A bank-by-bank analysis covering 94 banks[44] shows a relatively big dispersion of the available CET1 headroom, but also confirms that most banks operate with a comfortable headroom of CET1 ratios above capital requirements, ranging from 1.4% to 16.9% of total RWA. Data indicate that there is no link between banks’ capital headroom and their approach to payouts (dividends plus share buy-backs), i.e. the payout ratios do not seem to be lower for banks with lower capital headroom, for example (Figure 50).

Figure 50: CET1 headroom and payout ratios by bank

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

On the back of on average solid capital headroom and high profitability, banks’ dividend payouts and share buy-backs (together referred to as ‘payouts’) continued to increase and reached EUR 92 bn in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 51% of YE 2023 profits. Payouts do not seem to be constrained by capital requirements as all banks in the sample reported CET1 ratios above OCR&P2G (see Figure 50). Compared to 2023, payouts were 35% higher (vis-à-vis a 32% rise in net profits in 2023) but in relation to YE profits, payout ratios remained almost unchanged. Banks’ actual payouts in 2024 exceeded payout targets that the banks set themselves at the beginning of the year (EUR 86 bn). The plans for 2025 indicate a further rise in payouts, with a combined target of EUR 107 bn, or 55% of YE 2024 profits (Figure 51).

Figure 51: Dividends and share buy-backs (lhs) and payout ratio (rhs)

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

Looking forward, a cautious stance in respect of payouts seems warranted. Record payout plans for 2025 coincide with lower economic projections for 2025, an uncertain geopolitical environment (see Chapter on Macroeconomic environment and market sentiment) and lower asset quality (see Chapter on Asset side). Case-by-case assessments of banks’ payouts will remain an important element for supervisory authorities.

Exposure volume and risk weight of banks’ credit portfolio on the rise

Banks’ credit exposure increased by 6% (EUR 1,550 bn) in 2024, on the back of lower central bank rates and increased demand for loans. The increase was notable across all exposure classes. Corporate exposures increased by 9% (EUR 650 bn) and mortgage exposures by 5% (EUR 270 bn)[45]. During the same period, RWA for banks’ credit portfolio increased by 10%. The increase in 2024 was driven by the two biggest exposure classes, namely +11% for corporate and +8% for mortgage exposures (Figure 52). This change last year represents an increase in the overall RW density of about 100 bps (from 27.7% in Q4 2023 to 28.7% in Q4 2024). The increased risk weight is most pronounced for the corporate segment of banks’ credit portfolio (up 105 bps to 52.1% in Q4 2024). Mortgage exposures saw average risk-weights increase by 53 bps to 17.0% in Q4 2024. This represents an acceleration of the trend towards higher RW density that has been observed since 2021. For both exposure classes – corporate and mortgages, average risk-weights have returned to levels last seen in 2019.

Figure 52a: Credit risk exposure amounts, RWA (lhs) and RW density (rhs) for mortgages

Source: EBA supervisory reporting data

Figure 52b: Credit risk exposure amounts, RWA (lhs) and RW density (rhs) for corporates

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

Box 3: EU/EEA banks’ rising usage of SRTs

Banks’ usage of SRTs has continuously increased in recent years[46]. EU/EEA banks’ SRTs are slightly more than half of their total securitisation of around EUR 1 tn (here and in the following, considering securitised exposure as volume). RAQ results similarly confirm the wide usage of SRTs by banks: more than half of the banks have so far made use of SRTs and around three quarters of them aim to continue doing so going forward. Around 20% of SRT users are not yet sure about future usage, whereas approximately 5% no longer want to make use of SRTs. Around 20% of banks that have never made use of an SRT aim to issue one in the future. Compared to other jurisdictions, EU/EEA banks have a comparatively big share in worldwide SRT markets, with some analysis estimating their share at around 50%[47]. At EU/EEA banks, SRT exposure volume corresponds to around 2% of total credit exposure amounts (excluding retention). Nearly three quarters of SRTs’ underlying exposures are related to corporates, including SMEs and CRE financing (Figure 53).

Figure 53a: Outstanding volumes' origination years, since 2017*

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

Figure 53b: Distribution of underlying exposures*

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

[*] As for the text in this box, the volumes show securitised exposures. The chart on origination years is cut off at 2017; the previous years are smaller in volumes and not shown.

SRTs are not least a means of banks to expand their lending: through securitising exposures, banks can free up capital for new deployment and, for example, to extend new loans. This is of benefit for the economy, as it enables banks to expand lending without for example raising new capital. One of the questions related to SRTs is how much capital is actually ‘freed up’ through them. This can, for instance, be estimated through the implicit capital relief that these transactions provide. High level calculations indicate that there is a wide range of the CET1 capital relief by banks, ranging from around small single digit bps to more than 100 bps. Considering an average CET1 ratio of around 16.0%, the relief thus seems to be limited. One of the risks related to SRTs is if they mature at a similar time, as such creating a kind of ‘maturity wall’ at which the capital relief would suddenly end from banks’ point of view, and assuming that similar volumes of exposures do not mature at the same time. Banking sector-level supervisory reporting data do not indicate any such maturity wall. It remains important that this risk is also properly managed by banks going forward, not least amid their rising SRT usage: if these newly issued SRTs have similar maturities, it can quickly happen that a maturity wall is built up in future (Figure 54).

Figure 54a: Capital relief estimates by bank in bps of CET1, distribution including interquartile range

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

Figure 54b: Maturity estimates using first foreseeable termination date

Source: EBA Supervisory Reporting data

[*] The CET1 relief calculation is indicative. Several assumptions and simplifications are applied in its calculation, such as the usage of banks’ average risk density for the relief in RWA volumes from their SRTs.

The credit risk of SRTs’ underlying exposures is transferred to investors (protection providers). Amid rising SRT volumes, a key question is who the investors are. It is also important to understand whether these investors are sustainable in nature and will possibly be able to invest in new SRT transactions going forward. RAQ data indicate that private credit funds are the main investors in relative terms (around a third), followed by other investment funds (18%), insurance companies (14%) and pension funds (13%), which shows the interlinkages in the financial sector. Even though the investor base is not evenly distributed, it is still well distributed between different kinds of investors. This might also help to facilitate that, going forward, SRT investors will be available (Figure 55).

Source: EBA Risk Assessment Questionnaire

It remains paramount to understand whether banks are, for instance, investing in private credit funds or other NBFIs that then invest in banks’ SRTs. Such investments of banks could for instance be through lending to private credit funds or NBFIs, potentially contributing to these funds’ / NBFIs’ leverage (on banks’ interconnections with NBFIs see Box 1, which shows, for example, the loan and repo funding from banks to NBFIs). This could create certain ‘circles of risks’, as in the end a private credit fund’s SRT investment would become an implicit risk for a bank that invests – e.g. through providing repo-based or other funding – in that fund (see coverage on NBFIs in the Box 1 above, and more broadly in the July 2024 edition of the EBA’s Risk Assessment Report).


 


[41] 62 large EEA banks with valid data for the entire time series of 2005–2024. Equity defined as per accounting definition.

[42] MREL data source: MREL dashboard.

[43] DGS data source: DGS data.

[44] The sample includes banks with a CET1 headroom of less than 20% of RWA and with payout ratios of between 1% and 100%.

[45] It must be noted that growth rates here cannot be fully reconciled with those of accounting data-based calculations, for example. This is, for instance, because portfolios/segments are differently defined in financial reporting (FINREP), which forms the basis for the analysis in Chapter on Asset: volume and composition, and in common prudential reporting (COREP), which forms the basis for the analysis in this chapter. Furthermore, the concept of the carrying amount of loans differs from the concept of exposure amount. The latter, for instance, also includes loan commitments after a certain weighting, etc.

[46] As it also includes other input and information for the analysis and calculations, the box on SRTs is based on Q2 2024 data in contrast to the other analysis and charts of this report.